Every Safe Rate Treasury curve fitted on this trading day, with the fit error each one achieved.
The nominal curve, three ways
Same market, three fitted forms. The zero curve is what discounts a cashflow. The par curve is the one comparable with a published par curve, and carries a coupon effect that makes it the wrong choice for anything else. The LSC curve reduces the day to level, slope and curvature, which is what to regress on, the Svensson coefficients change sign every third day while describing a curve that moved five basis points.
Zero curvePar curveLSC curve
Level
4.764
Slope
-0.041
Curvature
-1.617
Implied short rate
4.806
Zero rate, par yield and instantaneous forward rate at each fitted tenor of the zero curve, each with its change since the previous fitted day.
Maturity
Zero rate
1d
Par yield
1d
Forward
1d
1Y
4.406%
+5.0 bp
4.456%
+5.1 bp
4.246%
+9.2 bp
2Y
4.300%
+8.3 bp
4.350%
+8.4 bp
4.176%
+13.4 bp
3Y
4.266%
+10.3 bp
4.316%
+10.4 bp
4.234%
+14.9 bp
5Y
4.293%
+12.3 bp
4.339%
+12.3 bp
4.438%
+15.0 bp
7Y
4.362%
+12.9 bp
4.402%
+12.9 bp
4.621%
+13.9 bp
10Y
4.470%
+12.9 bp
4.497%
+13.0 bp
4.803%
+12.0 bp
15Y
4.604%
+12.1 bp
4.609%
+12.3 bp
4.907%
+9.3 bp
20Y
4.676%
+11.2 bp
4.667%
+11.6 bp
4.860%
+7.6 bp
25Y
4.701%
+10.4 bp
4.690%
+11.1 bp
–
–
30Y
4.694%
+9.8 bp
4.692%
+10.7 bp
–
–
5.81 bp root-mean-square fit error across 330 priced securities. Within the normal range for this family, which is flagged above 7.5 bp, its 95th percentile across the history.
The money market curve
One week to one year, fitted from 46 bills on a bond equivalent basis. A bill is quoted on a discount basis, so this is a conversion rather than the quoted number, which is what makes it comparable with a coupon yield at all.
Overnight
4.543%
1W
4.558%
1M
4.577%
2M
4.565%
3M
4.537%
4M
4.506%
6M
4.452%
9M
4.399%
1Y
4.368%
2.04 bp root-mean-square fit error across 46 priced securities. Within the normal range for this family, which is flagged above 5.5 bp, its 95th percentile across the history.
Par curve, every fitted tenor
Thirteen tenors from three months to thirty years, the widest span of any family here. The zero curve above is fitted at ten; the par curve carries the three sub-year points as well.
Safe Rate Treasury Par Curve, thirteen fitted tenors, with one session's move at each.
Maturity
Par yield
1d
3M
4.888%
-0.1 bp
4M
4.533%
+0.2 bp
6M
4.469%
+2.3 bp
1Y
4.445%
+5.6 bp
2Y
4.354%
+8.3 bp
3Y
4.316%
+10.1 bp
5Y
4.338%
+12.4 bp
7Y
4.405%
+13.3 bp
10Y
4.502%
+13.3 bp
15Y
4.608%
+12.4 bp
20Y
4.668%
+11.6 bp
25Y
4.704%
+11.0 bp
30Y
4.729%
+10.6 bp
Worst single-security residual on this fit: 58.5 bp. A wide worst-case against a narrow average is usually one off-the-run issue rather than a bad day.
5.69 bp root-mean-square fit error across 330 priced securities. Within the normal range for this family, which is flagged above 7 bp, its 95th percentile across the history.
Index levels before September 30, 2026 are back-tested. They were computed after the fact by applying the rules to historical data, which benefits from hindsight in the choice of rules, and an index cannot be invested in directly. Methodology v1.0 takes effect at that rebalance, when levels begin to be struck on the day; the rulebook is identical either way, and the version is published on every row.
A fitted curve is a fit, not a quote. Daily error averages 3.8 basis points across the history and reaches about 20 on the worst days, in December 2008, when the market was genuinely hard to fit one smooth curve to. Every curve page publishes its own fit error rather than burying it.
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Safe Rate™, Safe Rate Indices™ and the Safe Rate US Treasury Index™ are trademarks of Safe Rate, claimed through use in commerce and not registered. Third-party marks are the property of their owners, which are not affiliated with and do not endorse this data.
Curves are fitted from public Treasury data and carry fit error; figures are not a record of trading, and an index cannot be invested in directly. No claim of compliance with the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks is made or implied. Not investment advice, not an offer, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.