Curve family

Real yield curve

Yields above inflation, fitted from inflation-linked securities (TIPS) every trading day since September 2008.

September 10, 2026

fitted from 45 linkers

2.0%2.2%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0%3.2%2Y5Y10Y20Y30Y2YReal yield2.157%3YReal yield2.141%5YReal yield2.217%7YReal yield2.359%10YReal yield2.587%20YReal yield3.055%30YReal yield3.122%
5.92 bp root-mean-square fit error across 45 priced securities. Within the normal range for this family, which is flagged above 9 bp, its 95th percentile across the history.
Real yields by maturity on September 10, 2026.
MaturityReal yield
2Y2.157
3Y2.141
5Y2.217
7Y2.359
10Y2.587
20Y3.055
30Y3.122

The last year

Real yields at 5, 10 and 30 years across 273 trading days. Hover any point for that day's values.

1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%Aug 8, 2025Sep 10, 2026Aug 8, 20255 year real1.333%10 year real1.916%30 year real2.635%Aug 19, 20255 year real1.380%10 year real1.987%30 year real2.734%Aug 28, 20255 year real1.164%10 year real1.847%30 year real2.722%Sep 9, 20255 year real1.135%10 year real1.755%30 year real2.579%Sep 18, 20255 year real1.193%10 year real1.769%30 year real2.560%Sep 29, 20255 year real1.291%10 year real1.825%30 year real2.572%Oct 8, 20255 year real1.299%10 year real1.808%30 year real2.583%Oct 20, 20255 year real1.276%10 year real1.771%30 year real2.490%Oct 29, 20255 year real1.392%10 year real1.805%30 year real2.494%Nov 7, 20255 year real1.372%10 year real1.848%30 year real2.550%Nov 19, 20255 year real1.408%10 year real1.879%30 year real2.599%Dec 1, 20255 year real1.409%10 year real1.880%30 year real2.606%Dec 10, 20255 year real1.450%10 year real1.914%30 year real2.619%Dec 19, 20255 year real1.484%10 year real1.957%30 year real2.682%Dec 31, 20255 year real1.514%10 year real1.977%30 year real2.696%Jan 12, 20265 year real1.451%10 year real1.938%30 year real2.673%Jan 22, 20265 year real1.462%10 year real1.958%30 year real2.657%Feb 2, 20265 year real1.353%10 year real1.953%30 year real2.736%Feb 11, 20265 year real1.301%10 year real1.860%30 year real2.640%Feb 23, 20265 year real1.226%10 year real1.778%30 year real2.578%Mar 4, 20265 year real1.251%10 year real1.809%30 year real2.593%Mar 13, 20265 year real1.312%10 year real1.927%30 year real2.752%Mar 24, 20265 year real1.527%10 year real2.093%30 year real2.828%Apr 2, 20265 year real1.415%10 year real2.000%30 year real2.768%Apr 13, 20265 year real1.363%10 year real1.954%30 year real2.771%Apr 22, 20265 year real1.337%10 year real1.951%30 year real2.755%May 1, 20265 year real1.278%10 year real1.945%30 year real2.781%May 12, 20265 year real1.384%10 year real2.025%30 year real2.840%May 21, 20265 year real1.630%10 year real2.173%30 year real2.904%Jun 2, 20265 year real1.600%10 year real2.091%30 year real2.783%Jun 11, 20265 year real1.739%10 year real2.175%30 year real2.798%Jun 23, 20265 year real1.967%10 year real2.300%30 year real2.822%Jul 2, 20265 year real1.927%10 year real2.284%30 year real2.854%Jul 14, 20265 year real1.962%10 year real2.348%30 year real2.927%Jul 23, 20265 year real2.096%10 year real2.467%30 year real3.004%Aug 3, 20265 year real2.092%10 year real2.470%30 year real3.054%Aug 12, 20265 year real2.057%10 year real2.457%30 year real3.062%Aug 21, 20265 year real2.006%10 year real2.439%30 year real3.082%Sep 1, 20265 year real2.098%10 year real2.482%30 year real3.055%Sep 10, 20265 year real2.217%10 year real2.587%30 year real3.122%
5 year real10 year real30 year real

How to read a real yield

A real yield is a return above inflation. A ten-year real yield of 2.4% alongside a nominal ten-year near 4.1% is not a contradiction: the gap between them is roughly what the market charges for bearing inflation over that horizon.

That gap is inflation compensation, not a forecast. It carries an inflation risk premium and a liquidity difference between linkers and nominal Treasuries, and the second is widest in exactly the conditions where a reader would most want to trust it.

This curve fits less tightly than the nominal families, and the reason is structural rather than a defect: it is fitted from 24 to 46 inflation-linked securities on any given day, against roughly 350 nominal coupon securities. Its typical fit error is 6.21 bp against the par curve's 3.83, and 103 of 4,507 days did not converge against the par fit's 16. The fit error for the day shown is published above.

Seven tenors, two to thirty years. There is no real curve inside two years because there are rarely enough short-dated linkers to fit one, and no par or forward series because neither is published for this family.

Index levels before September 30, 2026 are back-tested. They were computed after the fact by applying the rules to historical data, which benefits from hindsight in the choice of rules, and an index cannot be invested in directly. Methodology v1.0 takes effect at that rebalance, when levels begin to be struck on the day; the rulebook is identical either way, and the version is published on every row.

A fitted curve is a fit, not a quote. Daily error averages 3.8 basis points across the history and reaches about 20 on the worst days, in December 2008, when the market was genuinely hard to fit one smooth curve to. Every curve page publishes its own fit error rather than burying it.

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Curves are fitted from public Treasury data and carry fit error; figures are not a record of trading, and an index cannot be invested in directly. No claim of compliance with the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks is made or implied. Not investment advice, not an offer, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.