Curve family

Real yield curve

Yields above inflation, fitted from inflation-linked securities (TIPS) every trading day since September 2008.

November 9, 2026

fitted from 44 linkers

2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0%3.2%2Y5Y10Y20Y30Y2YReal yield2.531%3YReal yield2.472%5YReal yield2.444%7YReal yield2.510%10YReal yield2.685%20YReal yield3.119%30YReal yield3.098%
5.15 bp root-mean-square fit error across 44 priced securities. Within the normal range for this family, which is flagged above 9 bp, its 95th percentile across the history.
Real yields by maturity on November 9, 2026.
MaturityReal yield
2Y2.531
3Y2.472
5Y2.444
7Y2.510
10Y2.685
20Y3.119
30Y3.098

The last year

Real yields at 5, 10 and 30 years across 273 trading days. Hover any point for that day's values.

1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%Oct 7, 2025Nov 9, 2026Oct 7, 20255 year real1.300%10 year real1.814%30 year real2.598%Oct 14, 20255 year real1.251%10 year real1.762%30 year real2.510%Oct 20, 20255 year real1.276%10 year real1.771%30 year real2.490%Oct 24, 20255 year real1.276%10 year real1.756%30 year real2.478%Oct 30, 20255 year real1.394%10 year real1.837%30 year real2.504%Nov 5, 20255 year real1.421%10 year real1.890%30 year real2.580%Nov 12, 20255 year real1.364%10 year real1.824%30 year real2.515%Nov 18, 20255 year real1.394%10 year real1.868%30 year real2.587%Nov 24, 20255 year real1.362%10 year real1.838%30 year real2.566%Dec 1, 20255 year real1.409%10 year real1.880%30 year real2.606%Dec 5, 20255 year real1.427%10 year real1.906%30 year real2.640%Dec 11, 20255 year real1.452%10 year real1.922%30 year real2.638%Dec 17, 20255 year real1.484%10 year real1.957%30 year real2.682%Dec 23, 20255 year real1.521%10 year real1.969%30 year real2.684%Dec 30, 20255 year real1.478%10 year real1.939%30 year real2.670%Jan 6, 20265 year real1.465%10 year real1.955%30 year real2.700%Jan 12, 20265 year real1.451%10 year real1.938%30 year real2.673%Jan 16, 20265 year real1.466%10 year real1.956%30 year real2.658%Jan 23, 20265 year real1.417%10 year real1.933%30 year real2.640%Jan 29, 20265 year real1.318%10 year real1.904%30 year real2.673%Feb 4, 20265 year real1.357%10 year real1.947%30 year real2.724%Feb 10, 20265 year real1.267%10 year real1.839%30 year real2.617%Feb 17, 20265 year real1.269%10 year real1.788%30 year real2.548%Feb 23, 20265 year real1.226%10 year real1.778%30 year real2.578%Feb 27, 20265 year real1.147%10 year real1.719%30 year real2.522%Mar 5, 20265 year real1.249%10 year real1.826%30 year real2.606%Mar 11, 20265 year real1.240%10 year real1.855%30 year real2.704%Mar 17, 20265 year real1.212%10 year real1.840%30 year real2.687%Mar 23, 20265 year real1.467%10 year real2.040%30 year real2.804%Mar 27, 20265 year real1.550%10 year real2.155%30 year real2.878%Apr 2, 20265 year real1.415%10 year real2.000%30 year real2.768%Apr 8, 20265 year real1.417%10 year real1.998%30 year real2.780%Apr 14, 20265 year real1.337%10 year real1.922%30 year real2.754%Apr 20, 20265 year real1.326%10 year real1.947%30 year real2.763%Apr 24, 20265 year real1.267%10 year real1.928%30 year real2.757%Apr 30, 20265 year real1.301%10 year real1.979%30 year real2.821%May 6, 20265 year real1.360%10 year real1.973%30 year real2.773%May 12, 20265 year real1.384%10 year real2.025%30 year real2.840%May 18, 20265 year real1.545%10 year real2.151%30 year real2.924%May 22, 20265 year real1.681%10 year real2.176%30 year real2.868%May 29, 20265 year real1.572%10 year real2.082%30 year real2.803%Jun 4, 20265 year real1.652%10 year real2.126%30 year real2.791%Jun 10, 20265 year real1.784%10 year real2.231%30 year real2.853%Jun 16, 20265 year real1.744%10 year real2.157%30 year real2.767%Jun 23, 20265 year real1.967%10 year real2.300%30 year real2.822%Jun 29, 20265 year real1.837%10 year real2.178%30 year real2.738%Jul 6, 20265 year real1.879%10 year real2.262%30 year real2.848%Jul 10, 20265 year real1.950%10 year real2.340%30 year real2.918%Jul 16, 20265 year real1.972%10 year real2.366%30 year real2.968%Jul 22, 20265 year real2.037%10 year real2.418%30 year real2.981%Jul 28, 20265 year real2.117%10 year real2.449%30 year real2.967%Aug 3, 20265 year real2.092%10 year real2.470%30 year real3.054%Aug 7, 20265 year real2.049%10 year real2.433%30 year real3.028%Aug 13, 20265 year real2.021%10 year real2.425%30 year real3.041%Aug 19, 20265 year real1.978%10 year real2.384%30 year real3.019%Aug 25, 20265 year real1.948%10 year real2.362%30 year real2.992%Aug 31, 20265 year real2.089%10 year real2.472%30 year real3.063%Sep 4, 20265 year real2.092%10 year real2.470%30 year real3.030%Sep 11, 20265 year real2.308%10 year real2.627%30 year real3.124%Sep 17, 20265 year real2.380%10 year real2.645%30 year real3.092%Sep 23, 20265 year real2.570%10 year real2.785%30 year real3.169%Sep 29, 20265 year real2.641%10 year real2.934%30 year real3.323%Oct 5, 20265 year real2.633%10 year real2.987%30 year real3.419%Oct 9, 20265 year real2.611%10 year real2.944%30 year real3.369%Oct 16, 20265 year real2.467%10 year real2.769%30 year real3.183%Oct 22, 20265 year real2.360%10 year real2.660%30 year real3.075%Oct 28, 20265 year real2.394%10 year real2.705%30 year real3.130%Nov 3, 20265 year real2.376%10 year real2.674%30 year real3.116%Nov 9, 20265 year real2.444%10 year real2.685%30 year real3.098%
5 year real10 year real30 year real

How to read a real yield

A real yield is a return above inflation. A ten-year real yield of 2.4% alongside a nominal ten-year near 4.1% is not a contradiction: the gap between them is roughly what the market charges for bearing inflation over that horizon.

That gap is inflation compensation, not a forecast. It carries an inflation risk premium and a liquidity difference between linkers and nominal Treasuries, and the second is widest in exactly the conditions where a reader would most want to trust it.

This curve fits less tightly than the nominal families, and the reason is structural rather than a defect: it is fitted from 24 to 46 inflation-linked securities on any given day, against roughly 350 nominal coupon securities. Its typical fit error is 6.21 bp against the par curve's 3.83, and 103 of 4,507 days did not converge against the par fit's 16. The fit error for the day shown is published above.

Seven tenors, two to thirty years. There is no real curve inside two years because there are rarely enough short-dated linkers to fit one, and no par or forward series because neither is published for this family.

Index levels before September 30, 2026 are back-tested. They were computed after the fact by applying the rules to historical data, which benefits from hindsight in the choice of rules, and an index cannot be invested in directly. Methodology v1.0 takes effect at that rebalance, when levels begin to be struck on the day; the rulebook is identical either way, and the version is published on every row.

A fitted curve is a fit, not a quote. Daily error averages 3.8 basis points across the history and reaches about 20 on the worst days, in December 2008, when the market was genuinely hard to fit one smooth curve to. Every curve page publishes its own fit error rather than burying it.

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Curves are fitted from public Treasury data and carry fit error; figures are not a record of trading, and an index cannot be invested in directly. No claim of compliance with the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks is made or implied. Not investment advice, not an offer, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.