September 10, 2026 · last fitted close
Treasury rates
Key rates from one month to thirty years, fitted from Treasury's own end-of-day prices. The ten-year zero rate is 4.953%, up 12.2 bp on the session.
| Maturity | Zero coupon | Par yield | Money market | Real (TIPS) | Breakeven | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 1d | Rate | 1d | Rate | 1d | Rate | 1d | Rate | 1d | |
| 1 month | – | – | – | – | 3.790% | +4.8 | – | – | – | – |
| 3 month | – | – | – | – | 3.939% | +4.5 | – | – | – | – |
| 6 month | – | – | – | – | 4.084% | +6.8 | – | – | – | – |
| 1 year | 4.301% | +10.7 | 4.347% | +11.1 | 4.229% | +11.7 | – | – | – | – |
| 2 year | 4.533% | +13.8 | 4.584% | +14.2 | – | – | 2.157% | +6.4 | 2.377% | +7.4 |
| 3 year | 4.633% | +14.1 | 4.681% | +14.3 | – | – | 2.141% | +8.0 | 2.492% | +6.2 |
| 5 year | 4.706% | +13.1 | 4.749% | +13.2 | – | – | 2.217% | +9.4 | 2.489% | +3.7 |
| 7 year | 4.776% | +12.4 | 4.817% | +12.9 | – | – | 2.359% | +9.6 | 2.417% | +2.8 |
| 10 year | 4.953% | +12.2 | 4.978% | +13.1 | – | – | 2.587% | +9.1 | 2.366% | +3.2 |
| 20 year | 5.484% | +9.7 | 5.423% | +10.2 | – | – | 3.055% | +7.2 | 2.429% | +2.4 |
| 30 year | 5.380% | +7.0 | 5.367% | +9.5 | – | – | 3.122% | +6.9 | – | – |
A dash means that curve does not cover that maturity, which is a statement rather than missing data. The zero and par curves are fitted from coupon securities between one and thirty years; the money market curve is fitted from bills and stops at one year. Neither is extrapolated into the other's range, the front end is exactly where extending a coupon curve goes most wrong, which is why the money market curve exists separately. The 1d columns compare against September 9, 2026, the previous fitted trading day, so they are one-session moves rather than calendar-day ones.
Savings bonds
Treasury sets these on May 1 and November 1. They are not market rates: a savings bond cannot be traded, cannot be redeemed for twelve months, and forfeits its last three months of interest if cashed inside five years.
Series I
4.26%
Composite rate, for bonds issued from May 1, 2026
- Fixed rate, for its life
- 0.90%
- Inflation rate, six months
- 1.67%
The composite is not the sum of the two. It isfixed + 2×infl + fixed×infl, because the inflation rate is semiannual and compounds against the fixed rate.
Series EE
2.40%
Fixed for twenty years, for bonds issued from May 1, 2026
An EE bond is also guaranteed to double in value at twenty years, whatever its stated rate implies. At 2.40% the guarantee is worth more than the coupon, so the doubling is the real return.
Doubling over twenty years is 3.526% compounded annually. That is the number the stated rate has to beat.
How to read the breakeven column
Breakeven is the nominal zero rate less the real one at the same maturity: the inflation rate at which holding a nominal Treasury and holding an inflation-linked one would return the same amount. Above it the linker wins, below it the nominal does.
The subtraction is exact rather than an approximation, and only because both curves publish continuously compounded rates. On annually compounded yields the correct form is (1+n)/(1+r) − 1 and the plain difference drifts as rates rise.
It is not expected inflation, and nothing here calls it a forecast. It is expected inflation plus a premium for bearing inflation risk, less a liquidity premium on the linker, and that second term is largest exactly when a reader would most want to trust the number: inflation-linked securities traded far below fair value in late 2008, so breakevens collapsed further than any forecast did. Both premiums are unobservable, so separating them is a modeling exercise this does not attempt.
Six maturities, two to twenty years, because those are the ones both curves fit. A breakeven at a tenor where either side was not fitted would be a plausible figure whose error is invisible, so it is left out rather than interpolated. Only the 5 and 10 year points have an external series to check against, since those are the two the Federal Reserve publishes; the other four are computed identically and verified against nothing.