Eighteen years, animated

How the money market curve has moved since 2008

The front end, fitted from Treasury bills alone on a bond-equivalent basis. Eight maturities from one week to one year.

-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%3M1YSep 2008Oct 2008Nov 2008Dec 2008Jan 2009Feb 2009Mar 2009Apr 2009May 2009Jun 2009Jul 2009Aug 2009Sep 2009Oct 2009Nov 2009Dec 2009Jan 2010Feb 2010Mar 2010Apr 2010May 2010Jun 2010Jul 2010Aug 2010Sep 2010Oct 2010Nov 2010Dec 2010Jan 2011Feb 2011Mar 2011Apr 2011May 2011Jun 2011Jul 2011Aug 2011Sep 2011Oct 2011Nov 2011Dec 2011Jan 2012Feb 2012Mar 2012Apr 2012May 2012Jun 2012Jul 2012Aug 2012Sep 2012Oct 2012Nov 2012Dec 2012Jan 2013Feb 2013Mar 2013Apr 2013May 2013Jun 2013Jul 2013Aug 2013Sep 2013Oct 2013Nov 2013Dec 2013Jan 2014Feb 2014Mar 2014Apr 2014May 2014Jun 2014Jul 2014Aug 2014Sep 2014Oct 2014Nov 2014Dec 2014Jan 2015Feb 2015Mar 2015Apr 2015May 2015Jun 2015Jul 2015Aug 2015Sep 2015Oct 2015Nov 2015Dec 2015Jan 2016Feb 2016Mar 2016Apr 2016May 2016Jun 2016Jul 2016Aug 2016Sep 2016Oct 2016Nov 2016Dec 2016Jan 2017Feb 2017Mar 2017Apr 2017May 2017Jun 2017Jul 2017Aug 2017Sep 2017Oct 2017Nov 2017Dec 2017Jan 2018Feb 2018Mar 2018Apr 2018May 2018Jun 2018Jul 2018Aug 2018Sep 2018Oct 2018Nov 2018Dec 2018Jan 2019Feb 2019Mar 2019Apr 2019May 2019Jun 2019Jul 2019Aug 2019Sep 2019Oct 2019Nov 2019Dec 2019Jan 2020Feb 2020Mar 2020Apr 2020May 2020Jun 2020Jul 2020Aug 2020Sep 2020Oct 2020Nov 2020Dec 2020Jan 2021Feb 2021Mar 2021Apr 2021May 2021Jun 2021Jul 2021Aug 2021Sep 2021Oct 2021Nov 2021Dec 2021Jan 2022Feb 2022Mar 2022Apr 2022May 2022Jun 2022Jul 2022Aug 2022Sep 2022Oct 2022Nov 2022Dec 2022Jan 2023Feb 2023Mar 2023Apr 2023May 2023Jun 2023Jul 2023Aug 2023Sep 2023Oct 2023Nov 2023Dec 2023Jan 2024Feb 2024Mar 2024Apr 2024May 2024Jun 2024Jul 2024Aug 2024Sep 2024Oct 2024Nov 2024Dec 2024Jan 2025Feb 2025Mar 2025Apr 2025May 2025Jun 2025Jul 2025Aug 2025Sep 2025Oct 2025Nov 2025Dec 2025Jan 2026Feb 2026Mar 2026Apr 2026May 2026Jun 2026Jul 2026Aug 2026Sep 2026
20082026
217 month-ends, Sep 2008 to Sep 2026. The shaded band is the highest and lowest each maturity reached over the whole period. Hover to pause.

What to watch for

The curve spends most of eighteen years sloping upward, which is its normal state: lending for longer usually pays more. The interesting frames are the ones where it does not.

Watch late 2008, when the front end collapses toward zero and stays there for six years. Watch 2019, when the middle of the curve dips below the front. Then watch 2022 and 2023, when the whole curve lifts several percentage points in about eighteen months and inverts, the two-year paying more than the ten.

The shaded band is the range each maturity has covered over the whole period, so a curve sitting at the top of the band at the front and the middle of it at the back is telling you something a single day's chart cannot.

Each frame is the last fitted trading day of its month, not an average, so every shape shown is one that actually occurred. Hover to pause. Any single day is here, and the methodology explains the fit.

Index levels before September 30, 2026 are back-tested. They were computed after the fact by applying the rules to historical data, which benefits from hindsight in the choice of rules, and an index cannot be invested in directly. Methodology v1.0 takes effect at that rebalance, when levels begin to be struck on the day; the rulebook is identical either way, and the version is published on every row.

A fitted curve is a fit, not a quote. Daily error averages 3.8 basis points across the history and reaches about 20 on the worst days, in December 2008, when the market was genuinely hard to fit one smooth curve to. Every curve page publishes its own fit error rather than burying it.

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Curves are fitted from public Treasury data and carry fit error; figures are not a record of trading, and an index cannot be invested in directly. No claim of compliance with the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks is made or implied. Not investment advice, not an offer, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.